Being smart with the puck will be a major part of the Leafs’ game tonight. He should have some help as Keefe will be preaching about turnovers after allowing too many odd-man rushes vs. 1 job to take over after Murray left the door open last night with -1.48 goals saved above expected. 2s and that play is usually more conservative. Teams can play differently in front of No. I’m always skeptical of hitting inflated Overs just because two teams are playing backup goalies. Last night’s game also closed at 7 in most places right before game time and we could see that again today with the 6.5 teetering on the 7.
It finished with 5.12 expected goals and just over 4.0 expected goals at even strength. The latter portion of that game slowed down significantly at 2-2. Over 6.5 bettors caught a break last night as the Leafs tied the game with under two minutes remaining. However, this could also be a high-scoring affair with the mistakes and softness the Leafs displayed last night.Īt this price, I’m leaning on the value of the Caps at +170, but the bounce-back and Samsonov angles are legit here and might be the reasons for the ML movement from -175 to -200 for the Leafs.Ĭapitals vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis The teams could play tight in front of their backups, especially the Leafs after being called out by their coach following last night's final-minute loss. It’s a tough game to predict with both teams traveling on back-to-backs and coming off losses. However, after basically being let go by the Caps last season, Samsonov will be motivated and have money on the board vs. Washington will also have the advantage of seeing their former goalie in Toronto starter Ilya Samsonov. The Caps were outplayed early yesterday and faced a 3-0 deficit in the second frame and will likely have to rely on backup goalie Charlie Lindgren, who has played 24 games in the NHL over the last five seasons. The Capitals come in with some familiar faces out of the lineup - as Tom Wilson and Nick Backstrom are on the shelf - but they have been adequately replaced with Connor Brown and Dylan Strome. Now the Buds will have the quick turnaround after traveling back home to face the Capitals, who dropped their opener 5-2 last night in DC. a Montreal team starting four rookie defensemen, Toronto head coach Sheldon Keefe was not happy with the Leafs’ execution and called the team’s play careless. But that’s the life of the Toronto Maple Leafs.Īfter a sloppy opener vs. It’s never a good thing when your coach comes out after the first game of the year, a 4-3 loss to the Canadiens, and says you deserved to lose. Try PointsBet's "Request Your Bet" feature - You name it, they'll price it.Ĭheck out the exclusive bet we've asked for tonight - or Request your bet now! Capitals vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis Got an idea for a Capitals-Maple Leafs bet that you really like? My best bet: Denis Malgin Over 0.5 goals (+680) To put it in perspective, DraftKings has two of the Leafs’ fourth-liners with shorter goal odds than FanDuel’s price on Malgin. It’s not often we can get a second-line winger who also plays on the second unit of the power play at anything over +350 to score. This is a play based on price as the +680 odds indicate an implied probability of 12.8% while the other books at +245 are implying a 30% probability. Now, a night after scoring, he is available at +680! Malgin’s goal market wasn’t widely available last night as it was his first game, but some books had closing odds of +225. Malgin could be the Michael Bunting of the second line and with Toronto likely being less “creative” tonight, Malgin could bang in another tally in the paint. He added two shots on goal, tied for the most offensive-zone shifts at even strength, and complements the play of both Tavares and Nylander. The new combination finished with a 70% xGoal% and Malgin had one of the team’s three goals, amazingly leading all Toronto skaters with 0.658 xGoals. The Leafs’ second line of Denis Malgin, William Nylander, and John Tavares was the best of the four last night for Toronto.
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